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Top 30 Global Ideas for 2022

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Top 30 Global Ideas for 2022 Third-Quarter Update

In this note, we present our Top 30 Global Ideas for Q3 2022. This list remains one of high-conviction, long-term ideas, with quarterly updates that enable dynamic changes into names that we think offer higher- conviction upside potential.

Since publishing our Q2 update on April 4, 2022, the Top 30 list has delivered a total return of -17.4% (in USD terms) versus our benchmark, the MSCI World Index, at-15.6%. Year-to-date, the list has delivered a total return of -14.0%, above the benchmark at -20.1%, and since inception of our quarterly list at year-end 2019, the Top 30 has delivered a total return of +20.8%, above the benchmark at +13.2%.

Recession risk, rising rates and inflation remain key areas of focus across sectors. As of our latest US Equity Strategy RBC Macroscope update (published June 6, 2022), on a 6-12 month view, our Strategy team continues to believe that stock market leadership is transitioning from Value to Growth and that defensive areas have started to look over-owned and overvalued, while acknowledging near-term risks to that view should equities start to price in a full recession.

With the changes to the Top 30 list this quarter, we switch into best ideas that we also view as offering more attractive positioning against the current macro backdrop. On an equal-weighted basis, we increase the Top 30 list’s Real Estate and Utilities exposure to overweight versus the MSCI World Index, maintain a modestly overweight position in Financials, and remain notably overweight Energy and Industrials, driven by the inclusion of individual high-conviction names under coverage.

In Real Estate, we add Communications Infrastructure company American Tower (AMT US), which we think is well positioned to benefit from mobile 5G spending by its carrier customers, with accelerating site leasing trends in its core US market as well as many of its international markets. In 2023 and beyond, we believe AMT should post 10%+ AFFO/share growth and an attractive dividend, coupled with inflation protection in most of its international markets given its CPI-linked lease escalators.

In Utilities, we add independent power producer The AES Corporation (AES US). We believe AES offers a compelling decarbonization story, potential to become a leader in the clean energy producer space, and attractive valuation relative to defensive utility peers.

In Health Care, we add Lonza Group (LONN SW), which we think is positioned to benefit from multi-year structural tailwinds in biologic pharmaceutical manufacturing. We see life science funding concerns as overblown for CDMOs, and our recent supply/demand analysis suggests the long-term growth outlook is de- risked. In our view, the shares appear attractively valued at current levels vs. peers and due to the high return on incremental invested capital (25-30%), as well as opportunities to invest using its strong balance sheet. We remove robotic-assisted surgery company Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US) as we see potential for a tightening of hospital capital spending in the near term, elongating sales cycles. That said, we maintain an Outperform rating and continue to view ISRG as uniquely positioned for a multi-year runway of growth.

In Information Technology we replace Twilio (TWLO US) with Veeva Systems (VEEV US), which we view as offering defensive attributes (Veeva sells mission critical software to life sciences, a defensive industry), multiple growth drivers, a leading financial model, and reasonable valuation.

In Consumer Discretionary, we remove Amazon.com (AMZN US) as we see risk to H2/22 outlook in the event of marginal consumer softness and associated excess capacity, while maintaining an Outperform rating. In Materials, we remove building solutions manufacturer Louisiana-Pacific (LPX US) given potential for near-term headwinds associated with higher interest rates and slowing North American housing growth, while our long- term positive thesis remains intact.

This report contains further detail on our investment thesis for each of the names on the Q3/22 list beginning on page 7. We encourage you to reach out to our team to continue the dialogue regarding their investment ideas.

We see our fundamental work being increasingly augmented by our four flagship research products: RBC FusionTM, RBC TM, RBC ElementsTM, and RBC ESG StratifyTM. RBC Fusion offers peer-reviewed, unique reports on our highest-conviction, most-differentiated calls. RBC Imagine is a series of fundamental research reports focused on disruptive forces that we believe will transform the world. Our RBC Elements work features proprietary insights generated in collaboration with our internal data science team. With RBC ESG Stratify, we separate the signal from the noise on ESG matters with precise, analytical research.

Top 30 Global Ideas for 2022 — Changes this Quarter

Additions: The AES Corporation (AES US), American Tower (AMT US), Lonza Group (LONN SW), Veeva Systems (VEEV US)

Deletions: Amazon.com (AMZN US), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US), Louisiana-Pacific (LPX US), Twilio (TWLO US)

Top 30 Global Ideas for 2022 — Pricing Data

Notes:


1 Subsequent to the July 4, 2022 pricing of the Top 30 Global Ideas for 2022, ADS’s price target was lowered to EUR 205.00 (from EUR 265.00) on July 5, 2022. 


2 AltaGas Ltd. (TSX: ALA) has agreed to sell its Alaskan Utilities to TriSummit Utilities Inc. announced on May 26, 2022. RBC Capital Markets served as financial advisor to AltaGas. The transaction is anticipated to close no later than the first quarter of 2023 and will be subject to customary closing conditions, including State regulatory approvals. This research report and the information herein is not intended to provide voting advice, serve as an endorsement of the transaction or result in procurement, withholding or revocation of a proxy or any other action by a security holder.


3 This security is restricted pursuant to RBC Capital Markets policy and, as a result, its continued inclusion in the Top 30 Global Ideas list has not been reviewed or confirmed as of the date hereof.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Price performance does not take into account relevant costs, including commissions and interest charges or other applicable expenses that may be associated with transactions in these shares.

Top 30 Global Ideas for 2022 — Changes This Quarter

Note: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Price performance does not take into account relevant costs, including commissions and interest charges or other applicable expenses that may be associated with transactions in these shares.

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets

Top 30 Global Ideas — Performance Summary

Although the Top 30 is not intended to be a relative product, having been created to capture RBC Capital Markets’ best ideas on an absolute basis, we compare the performance of the Top 30 to the MSCI Developed World Index and regional indices to provide context for its returns. See the performance tables below for Q2 2022 (April 4, 2022 to July 4, 2022) and since inception (December 2019).


Notes: Q2 2022 performance calculated from the time of publishing the Top 30 Q2 2022 update before market open on April 4, 2022, to market close on July 4, 2022. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Price performance does not take into account relevant costs, including commissions and interest charges or other applicable expenses that may be associated with transactions in these shares.


1 This security is restricted pursuant to RBC Capital Markets policy and, as a result, its continued inclusion in the Top 30 Global Ideas list has not been reviewed or confirmed as of the date hereof.
Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FF Global Capital does not provide investment, tax, legal, or retirement advice or recommendations. The information presented here is not specific to any individual’s personal circumstances. To the extent that this material concerns tax matters, it is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by a taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed by law. Each taxpayer should seek independent advice from a tax professional based on his or her individual circumstances. These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable — we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. The information in these materials may change at any time and without notice.

Prepared by Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc. Copyright 2022

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What Do Rising Interest Rates Mean for Your Money?

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Interest Rates

Although rising interest rates make it more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow, retirees and others who seek income could benefit from higher yields on savings accounts and CDs.

What Do Rising Interest Rates Mean for Your Money?

On March 16, 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve raised the benchmark federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 0.25% to 0.50%. This is the beginning of a series of increases that the FOMC expects to carry out over the next two years to combat high inflation. 1


Along with announcing the current increase, the FOMC released economic projections that suggest the equivalent of six additional 0.25% increases in 2022, followed by three or four more increases in 2023.2 Keep in mind that these are only projections, based on current conditions, and may not come to pass. However, they provide a helpful picture of the potential direction of U.S. interest rates.

What is the federal funds rate?

The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend funds to each other overnight to maintain legally required reserves within the Federal Reserve System. The FOMC sets a target range, usually a 0.25% spread, and then sets two specific rates that act as a floor and a ceiling to push the funds rate into that target range. The rate may vary slightly from day to day, but it generally stays within the target range.

Although the federal funds rate is an internal rate within the Federal Reserve System, it serves as a benchmark for many short-term rates set by banks and can influence longer-term rates as well.

Why does the Fed adjust the federal funds rate?

The Federal Reserve and the FOMC operate under a dual mandate to conduct monetary policies that foster maximum employment and price stability. Adjusting the federal funds rate is the Fed’s primary tool to influence economic growth and inflation.

The FOMC lowers the federal funds rate to stimulate the economy by making it easier for businesses and consumers to borrow, and raises the rate to combat inflation by making borrowing more expensive. In March 2020, when the U.S. economy was devastated by the pandemic, the Committee quickly dropped the rate to its rock-bottom level of 0.00%–0.25% and has kept it there for two years as the economy recovered.

The FOMC has set a 2% annual inflation goal as consistent with healthy economic growth. The Committee considered it appropriate for inflation to run above 2% for some time in order to balance the extended period when it ran below 2% and give the economy more time to grow in a low-rate environment. However, the steadily increasing inflation levels over the last year — with no sign of easing — have forced the Fed to change course and tighten monetary policy.

How will consumer interest rates be affected?

The prime rate, which commercial banks charge their best customers, is tied directly to the federal funds rate and generally runs about 3% above it. Though actual rates can vary widely, small-business loans, adjustable-rate mortgages, home-equity lines of credit, auto loans, credit cards, and other forms of consumer credit are often linked to the prime rate, so the rates on these types of loans typically increase with the federal funds rate. Fed rate hikes might also put upward pressure on interest rates for new fixed-rate home mortgages, but these rates are not tied directly to the federal funds rate or the prime rate.


Although rising interest rates make it more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow, retirees and others who seek income could eventually benefit from higher yields on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). Banks typically raise rates charged on loans more quickly than they raise rates paid on deposits, but an extended series of rate increases should filter down to savers over time.

What about bond investments?

Interest-rate changes can have a broad effect on investments, but the impact tends to be more pronounced in the short term as markets adjust to the new level.

When interest rates rise, the value of existing bonds typically falls. Put simply, investors would prefer a newer bond paying a higher interest rate than an existing bond paying a lower rate. Longer-term bonds tend to fluctuate more than those with shorter maturities because investors may be reluctant to tie up their money for an extended period if they anticipate higher yields in the future.

Bonds redeemed prior to maturity may be worth more or less than their original value, but when a bond is held to maturity, the bond owner would receive the face value and interest, unless the issuer defaults. Thus, rising interest rates should not affect the return on a bond you hold to maturity, but may affect the price of a bond you want to sell on the secondary market before it reaches maturity.

Although the rising-rate environment may have a negative impact on bonds you currently hold and want to sell, it might also offer more appealing rates for future bond purchases.

Bond funds are subject to the same inflation, interest rate, and credit risks associated with their underlying bonds. Thus, falling bond values due to rising rates can adversely affect a bond fund’s performance. However, as underlying bonds mature and are replaced by higher-yielding bonds within a rising interest-rate environment, the fund’s yield and/or share value could potentially increase over the long term.

How will the stock market react?

Equities may also be affected by rising rates, though not as directly as bonds. Stock prices are closely tied to earnings growth, so many corporations stand to benefit from a more robust economy, even with higher interest rates. On the other hand, companies that rely on heavy borrowing will likely face higher costs going forward, which could affect their bottom lines.

The stock market reacted positively to the initial rate hike and the projected path forward, but investors will be watching closely to see how the economy performs as interest rates adjust — and whether the increases are working to tame inflation.3

The market may continue to react, positively or negatively, to the government’s inflation reports or the Fed’s interest-rate decisions, but any reaction is typically temporary. As always, it’s important to maintain a long-term perspective and make sound investment decisions based on your own financial goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance.

The FDIC insures CDs and bank savings accounts, which generally provide a fixed rate of return, up to $250,000 per depositor, per insured institution. The return and principal value of stocks and investment funds fluctuate with market conditions. Shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investments offering the potential for higher rates of return also involve higher risk.

Investment funds are sold by prospectus. Please consider the fund’s objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. The prospectus, which contains this and other information about the investment company, can be obtained from your financial professional. Be sure to read the prospectus carefully before deciding whether to invest.

1–2) Federal Reserve, March 16, 2022

3) The Wall Street Journal, March 17, 2022

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FF Global Capital does not provide investment, tax, legal, or retirement advice or recommendations. The information presented here is not specific to any individual’s personal circumstances. To the extent that this material concerns tax matters, it is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by a taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed by law. Each taxpayer should seek independent advice from a tax professional based on his or her individual circumstances. These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable — we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. The information in these materials may change at any time and without notice.

Prepared by Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc. Copyright 2022

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