Long-term economic trends have left the U.S. economy increasingly reliant on spending by upper-income households. We unpack the potential implications for economic stability and Federal Reserve policymaking.

The future is here … …

We’re increasingly of the view that a series of disruptions are masking a very real cyclical U.S. economic slowdown underneath the surface.

AI is seldom out of the headlines in 2025, with defining developments coming one after another. We look at where AI is today and how its promise is matched against technological, economic, and geopolitical challenges.